Experts forecast NHS nurse shortages

The number of NHS nurses looks set to fall by up to 25,000 in the next 10 years, according to the NHS Workforce Review Team.

The NHS Workforce Review Team (WRT) says that currently  overall supply of the nursing workforce largely meets demand but it predicts that the number of whole-time equivalent nurses will fall from its current level of around 300,000 to around 275,000
by 2016.

This predicted drop also coincides with plans to expand community services – NHS London unveiled plans for an extra 4,000 community posts this month.

The review document points out that 21% of health visitors, 16% of school nurses and 17% of district nurses are aged over 55 and due to retire in the next decade. Nursing homes will also be badly affected.

'WRT modelling forecasts that if current commissions are maintained there will be a slight reduction in the number of trained nurses available in the future,' the team states in its summer 2008 assessment of workforce priorities.

The document also warns that the move to an all-graduate profession could potentially reduce the nursing recruitment pool.

It recommends that strategic health authorities review commissioning levels, and asks employers to focus on retaining and developing the nursing workforce.

PCTs and employers will also need to make more community placements available and encourage nurses to work in primary care, the document adds.

Howard Catton, RCN head of policy, said: 'It is a reduction in numbers of about 25,000 – it is more than a slight reduction to me. I am concerned.

'The acute to community shift will result in an increase in demand for nurses. It is concerning that there is a downward trend at a time when government policy will mean that the demand for nurses is going up.'

He warned: 'If we don't pay more attention, we risk going back to the boom-and-bust cycle.'

Gail Adams, Unison's head of nursing, added: 'We are still not very good at persuading nurses to carry on working – we need to find them new career opportunities.'

The report follows recent warnings that new immigration rules will make recruitment difficult for care homes and an NT survey that reveals that 86% of nurses believe there will be a recruitment crisis within two years (NT News, 9 September, p3).